how will the fall be???

[fmw]

So . . . as we near September, as I read on other sites about big blitzes of albies or bonito outside Jones Inlet, what are the predictions for fall??? When will things get going?? Will it be a good year?? Will we see albies out east this weekend???

You know, I know that these are kind of meaningless questions, but I had to do something to break the bad vibe and deadness created by those two clowns who took over this board for about a week . . . probably the wierdest episode in the three or four years I've been posting on this site.

[Tuna]

(Just got done with my fall prediction on another site)....

Its gonna be a great fall run.

There is a lot of small bait all over the East End.

Its just a matter of time before the predators move in shore to start chomping down on this stuff.

However, my gut tells me I'll be hoping for a bass or two on Saturday, or maybe a shot at the frigates. The following weekend the albies will be in.

Note: my last prediction when the albies would show was wrong, so don't take this one too seriously.

[fmw]

I agree. I actually saw your post on the other site and kind of plagiarized the topic to jump start the board.

Let's see: small bait on the south side, plenty of spearing with snappers around the marina in Montauk harbor, tiny peanut bunker at Shagwong and up north at the Gulls (and probably around Gardiners), reports of huge amounts of peanut bunker from the Newport, RI area, reports of plenty of large bunker as well as spearing/snappers on the Western North Shore, tunoid/blue blitzes off Jones Beach. It all sounds good to me.

With predicted north winds all weekend, this should be a pleasant weekend to fish the south side . . . I'm hopeful for some tunoids to show.

[h2p530]

I myself am looking foward to a great fall there is so much bait inshore on the beach. the only thing that I'm seeing and not liken are" sea robins" I hope thay take off when the good stuff comes.

[Albiemanmike]

I was out today from Niantic to the Gulls and Sluiceway and over to Fishers and Watch Hill. Not a sign of Tunoids but I did see alot of small pods of surface feeding fish. Mostly bluefish and very picky, they are feasting on very tiny bunker 1/2-1" bait. The amount of bait is staggering and I am hopeful for a very good fall run but you know how it goes........Time will tell. If we don't see alot of noreasters this could be a fall to remember but that is still left to be decided. I tried the reef where I have been getting all of the big fish in the last 3-4 weeks and they seem to have moved on, didn't mark any fish today and live lined some shad for awhile with nothing to show for my efforts. Today was mostly a flyfishing/recon mission anyway but I brought the big stuff just in case. I did manage one 5-6 lb. bluefish behind Fishers but that was it for the day. There was some fish feeding on top at Little Gull early in the morning but they were not interested in any of the flies I had to offer. Saw a few guides out that way and they seemed to be having the same problem, there is so much bait it is difficult to get the fish to see/take your offering. Tried all of the usual tricks but nothing seemed to work. It should get better as the weeks go by, and I agree with Tuna weekend after this weekend should see tuna in force around our neck of the woods, but it could be sooner.

Tightlines,
Mike Mayo

[Ray]

Up here in MASS and the rest of NE it looks like this wil be one of the best years in a while. There is so much bait around. But, there is also a ton of fish around.

It started this spring with an incredible number of fish on the flats of the Cape. The fish I was catching were averaging over 30 inches. It was also common to see schools of 40+ inch fish in less than 2 feet of water.

The blues are showing up in greater numbers than normal for August. Bonito and Albies are on the southern Cape and RI shoreline. And BFT are arriving too!!

Yesterday I booked my trip to MV to fish the derby and MASS CCA Challenge Cup too.

This should be a great fall.

[peteD]

Frank, I fished the early incoming last week with a 7wt at Camp Hero. Small fish and small bait. IMHO there is a lot of rain bait here now. It's going to be Albies on the rocks any day now.

[fmw]

I saw pods of small rain bait shimmering just off Caswells as well.

[Tuna]

... and further west by the surfers.

... and all the way to Gurneys Inn.

[fmw]

just heard a third hand report that mahi are in fairly close off Montauk -- like 8 miles.

[DPIDDY]

Ray Whats the CCA MASS Challenge cup?

[AndyF]

I was off all week and there has been a ton of peanut bunker from Montauk to 3 mile harbor (where I was). For those interested in playing with the blues while the rest of the bite is slow, the best time appears to be late afternoon/early evening (from 4:30-sundown) regardless of tide. The area in Gardiners from Cartright shoal through Nappeague is loaded with large, tight schools of little bunker and bluefish. The bunker get balled up by the blues and if you get in one of the blitz and shut the engine many times the bait will use the boat as cover while the blues come up from beneath. It is really pretty cool to watch.

There have also been mackerel and/or albies and/or bonito in the mix, often porpoising clear out of the water, but by all accounts they are almost impossible to catch. Even the blues have been very finnicky (as reported in today's reports section) and although they are surely catchable you can position yourself right in the midst of a wildly frenzied school without a hit. As Josh pointed out to me, it makes catching the blues kind of fun again.

I think it will be an awesome fall and hoping that the three Ws (work, wife and weather) all allign themselves correctly for a few great days on the water.

[joshr]

While I agree that, baitwise all is shaping up well, I am very concerned about a bunch of reports I've heard that it's looking to be a bad storm year with lots of hurricanes. I've heard a couple announcements that "they" think it will be worst season for major storms since '99. Anyone who fished the east end in '99 remembers that that fall completely shut down in mid-late Sept. after a major hurricane blew all the bait out.

Let's hope the meteorologists are as wrong on this as NOAA usually is about the wind!

--JHR

[fmw]

I've read the NOAA report on lots of storms too, though predicting high numbers, not necessarily saying they are aimed for northeast. I think in 99, it wasn't just the number of storms, but they were back-to-back-back, and one in particular (Floyd, I think) really churned in one place for days on end.

As for NOAA, one only has to look at the forecast of NW 10-15 for Saturday afternoon, Sat. night and Sunday. By mid-afternoon Saturday it was probably 20, gusts to 25.

[Ray]

DPIDDY,

The CCA MASS Challenge Cup is a Massachusetts one-day fishing tourney for all CCA members. It is also open to the public, but the entry fee includes a one year membership.

Last years event was great. All dat fishing followed by a lobster bake!! I fished it from the Vineyard and did pretty well. Nice fat Albies. I'll be fishing it from the Vineyard again this year by kayak.