anyone have any theories.

[flyfshr1]

Sunday...11/26. Came out of jones inlet and ran east to Tobay ..then West to the roundhouse. I saw two gannets (yes two!!and they were just flying ...not diving) and no fish. Stoped on some good marks but was unable to catch anything. What the heck is going on out there.

[Northfork]

I hear the herring are in at Montauk right now. I was out by Gardiners Island yesterday. Very quiet. Saw some gannets but as you reported they were flying around and not diving on anything.

[fmw]

1. There hasnt been as much peanut bunker this year. Peanuts usually are the main fuel for what most people consider to be the "fall run" -- the east to west trek of bodies of fish along the south shore beaches from late October through November.

2. Since late October there have been a number of big storms, noreasters, etc. (almost once a week) where seas have come up to 15 to 20 feet, and without doubt scattering the bait/fish.

3. Water temps are somewhat warmer than usual. Still 53 in Montauk this weekend. Look at the NY Times weather page today which shows that the only place where theres ocean temps in the 40s is Northern New England.

Hopefully the weather will stay decent enough for the next couple weeks because I think the big late fall baits are just beginning to arrive.

[danny]

aside from the bait issue (i saw tons till 2 weeks ago), i agree completely with fmw. been out almost every day, it feels like mid october, latest. the weather has been nuts this year, and the wind/rain every few days keeps everything broken up and changing.

[KayakerStan]

The south shore has really slowed down while the north shore has picked up big time.

[itsmoderating]

Things around Breeze Point & the Coney Island Flats Have been dead for weeks. Bait, Birds & Bass (even Blues) have been missing from the Bay & the Flats. A few fish have been caught w/ eels around the islands but nothing bigger than 15 lbs. There just no baits around bunkers, rain fish etc. & water is muddy brown.
I still think we will see the fall run just later than excepted
Good Luck & Good Fishing

[tommat]

I think the migration patterns have changed from years past, and not for the better. I believe that the bigger bass go directly from Montauk to CapeMay and then further south, rather then along the beaches. This year the bait was in place, but we then had storm after storm with lots of rain. This scattered and pushed the bait off. We were left with dirty water, no bait, and no fish. For me, every Fall seems to get worse and worse. The last 3 years have not been good. Yes, there were great days here and there, but if you looked at the entire Fall run, it was poor. Last steller one for me was maybe 4 or 5 years ago when the herring were in. I caught lots of quality bass, 20lbs, on flies and bait.