Picking your days

[Danny M]

When fishing in the ocean in a small boat everyone says you gotta "pick your days". Well, I've been striper fishing the Mac for years and I would get some general ideas from the weather report, but seeing was always believing and if it was nasty it was easy enough to fish inside.

I want to be more conservative with a 12 mile run down to halibut point, or 18 to Thatchers, mostly to avoid a hell ride home, but I'm having problems deciphering the noaa reports. The Friday before last I headed out. The report predicted SE wind 5-10 and seas 1-3. There was some decent bouncing in my little boat as I ran 20 mph into the wind but it was very manageable and I felt comfortable out there all day.

Sat. The report called for 3-5 ft seas. I didn't make the run to cape Anne, but I was tapping around the Merrimac mid day with my son and headed out the mouth just to see what it was like. Once I was past the swells created by the outgoing tide and I was in the ocean it seemed even easier than the day that was predicted 1-3!

So, in short, whats the best indicators for "picking your day"? Wind direction/speed? Predicted wave height? I was told that the 3-5 was easy because it was mostly "ground swell", How can I guess it will be "ground swell" or chop.?

Looking at this weeks 7 day, which days do you think are the best?

[twofinbluna]

As has been the case all summer, this week looks pretty windy looking at the all the charts and forecasts. While they are often wrong with their forecasts, this time of year is they call for this much wind inshore, its going to be windy. It really depends on where you would be fishing and whether you want to fish with some wind or not.

You want to pay attention to the offshore forecast, though, if you are going out 10-15 miles or more. Eventhough it is technically for outside of 25nm, they suck at knowing where the line will be on a given day, and so you should watch both. When they call a week like they do in the offshore forecast, its almost always going to realllllly suck offshore. If the forecast is right, would not even think about going offshore late in the week.

They say it may die out for a bit on thursday, but whenever they call for a quick die out it either doesnt happen or happens at dark. But that said, if you are feeling lucky, the only day to watch would be early on Thursday. I wouldn't bother based on Fridays forecast. I mean, at times they will guess the die out right, but it is not something you want to bank on by any means. Plus it will be choppy/swelly even if it dies out.

As far as the inshore goes, it looks like Monday is they only chance for a while. You could probably go if you stay inshorre but only if you want to get a little bit of a pounding.

Remember, they are usually bad at forecasting, so watch the updates as the week goes on. Again, it all depends on where you will be and what you want to put up with in terms of weather. With a SW or S wind, if you stay inside, you can get into the lee of a bunch of places down that way. The further you go out the worse it will get, if what they are calling for happens.

In terms of knowing how to pick your days, you really need to pay attention to the weather for long periods of time to get the feel of what is going on. There are weather patterns that you can pick a head of time the day to go, but there are patters that are completely unpredictable. If you only go by the forecasts, you almost always miss a day.

In theory, though, the best days are the days when a High passes over the water and sits there. If it passes too far north or south, it wont be that great. If the center passes over you, that is ideal. They suck at predicting where the Highs will go, you need to try and watch the models and charts and also listen to weathermen and then make your own call.



*Inshore forecast, Merrimack-south*

Tonight
NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon
NW winds around 10 kt...becoming SW late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon Night
SW winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until just after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue
SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue Night
SW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed
SW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt around noon...then increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed Night
SW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu
S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late afternoon and overnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri
S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through early evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm through early afternoon. This product is normally issued twice daily at approximately 4 am and 4 PM...and updated as conditions warrant.



*Offshore Forecast*
25nm-out to Hague line

Overnight


NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Highest winds and seas se.

Mon And Mon Night
NW winds 15 to 20 kt becoming W late Mon. Seas becoming 3 to 4 ft late Mon.

Tue
W to SW winds increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft.

Tue Night And Wed
SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft... highest E.

Thu
Winds diminishing to variable 10 kt...then becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Seas subsiding to 3 to 4 ft.

Fri
S winds increasing to 20 to 30 kt...then shifting to W 25 kt late. Seas building to 6 to 10 ft...highest E.

[fishoutawater]

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/massachusettsMarineWeek.php?expandweek=ON#tabs

Not too good for long range planning, but check it before you go.
Wind speed and direction is the best indicator for me on what type day i'm going to have.

Buoy gives a snapshot of whats going on out there in the last hour. I use this for wave height and period mostly.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44029

[twofinbluna]

Definilty check the marine forecasts before going. As fishoutwater says, they are not good long term, for the most part. Sometimes they get it right but do not assume they do. The best forecast to look for is the early a.m. one that is given. For the inshore zones, they usually update the forecast between 2:30am and 4am. The Offshore forecast (GOM) is usually updated at 4am. They often will change the forecast that they had given the previous night (usually night updates are out by 9-10pm, at the latest.

While they will sometimes change the forecasts at the mid-morning updates, by then it is too late, and so you will want to hope they get it with the early morning update. Even then, do not ever assume they will deinfilty be right, they are often wrong every update they do. But you can get a good feel for what they think will happen by watching the forecasts and how they update it over time.

As fow says, the buoy reports are key too. There is really nothing offshore that will be of much use to people south of Maine. The only one we have that has been usueful is the Jordan Basin buoy, but that is only because we fish down that way. You will have to rely on the buoys closer to shore. Early in the summer, it can be windy inshore and die out offshore, but most of the time it is the other way around. As we talked about in another thread, the cold water usually has much less wind, and the cold water is normally close to shore, with warm water offshore. Maybe one of these days they will fix the Cashes buoy, but until them nothing in terms of buoys offshore that really help.

Also, as we talked about, the tall weather stations, like Isles Of Shoals, normally have more wind since they are higher up. While that may be helpful in knowing what the wind is like further out, near the Shoals (and other tall stations), the wind is often a bit lower at water level than up high.

You should try and start reading weather maps and weather models, there are a nunch of them, and while they update regularly and often change when they do, they are good to watch. Over time you will get a good feel of what may happen by watching weather models.

Fishing offshore, outside 30nm, there is nothing you can use to know what its like out. There are times when it is obviously not going to be nice out there, but a lot of iffy days when you will only know by going. You will never know what its like way off sitting on land. You get 30 or 40 nm out and it can be a totally different weather situation.

My guess is that what you want is to look for sunny or mostly sunny days when they call for 5-10 knots, ideally something from the North coming to something from the South, direction wise. Well, ideally you would want it when they call for some direction 'around 5knts' or even better, 'light and variable'. 10-15 is doable in a small boat, but you would ideally want less than that. Pay attention to land forecasts because the marine forecasts do not mention cloud cover. You will sometimes see no wind and think its a great day but it ends up being cloudy and rainy with no wind, if you only go by the marine forecast.

Again, depends on what you want to put up with when out there.

[fishahn]

twofin sums it up well, I have a 21' boat and try to be as careful as possible in picking my days, I've defintely been out in some nasty stuff and my boat handles it ok, but would rather not be getting my ass kicked obviously! usually like to see 5 - 10 knots, 10 - 15 kts under right conditions is doable but above this it gets sketchy! was thinking about today and possibly tomorrow but with the forecast decided to wait. hoping for early next week, maybe Sun/Mon!

rich

[doghouse]

I print out the weekly noaa forcast on a daily basis as do I the stellwagon bouy reports (this is where i fish mostly). Then do a side by side comparison with the noaa forcasts to the actual data from the bouy reports. (for example they predict soutwest 5-10kts for monday I print that, then I go online tuesday and print the actuals off the bouy and compare) What this does is help me see what kind of error margin the forcasts typically have. I have gennerally found that the NOAA forcast predicts 10-20% greater winds and seas than is actual. This Summer, NOOA has been about 95% on the money for wind direction, which is very helpful for game-planning. This process has helped me pick good days. All summer I had only one "turn around and head for home" day. But October is coming and the sea can change fast during autum breezes. Good luck - stay safe.

[z-drive]

I pay attention to wave period (observed and predicted) as well as wind variations with a small boat. this is namely why i scrapped that trip for saturday. GOMOOS had predicted conditions simmiliar to noaa's, but they throw in a wave period prediction as well. typically, a 2-3' "sea" with a period over 12-14 seconds isn't anything to worry about. up, down. up, down. thats ground swell. the seas they had predicted, and along the trendline, were in the 4-6 second range @ 3-5 feet. that will be stiff on most rides minus 30'+ers. also, it has alot to do with the wind shifts. if it blows easterly for a few days, then suddenly shifts southwest or northwest, all that new chop is going to build on top of the existing swell resulting in some really steep slop.

gomoos is the way to go for predictions, actual realtime data, and all around good info. the graphic interface on the hourly report page is awesome to compare conditions around the area. doing some reading into "ocean science" would be good to understand fetch, swell, coriolis, all that fun stuff. i'm almost glad they make us deckies take a class on that stuff.

http://www.gomoos.org/

[backman]

I feel like a broken record.

NOAA reports twice daily; 2 lines of text per 3-10 thousand square miles.

There are many other sites - FMOC, fishweather, NOAA graphical interface, intellicast; that give graphical forecasts with wind and wave maps at much greater frequency - every 4 or 6 hours as an example.

The buoys will give you a data curve as to what is going on now and what the trend is. Combine the bunch; look at a isobar map or two to see where high's and lows are and where pressure gradients are and you'll do a lot better than trusting your life to interpreting what

"WED NIGHT
SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE.

really means in the 30 mile path you are taking on the waters.

FMOC - https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=27km_watl&prod=wav&dtg=2007092512

NOAA Graphical - http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ndfd/graphical/sectors/boxMarineDay.php#tabs

Intellicast -http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/WINDcast.aspx?location=USCT0094

Fishweather (my new favorite thanks to Mr Pink)
http://www.fishweather.com/windandwhere.iws?regionID=193&regionProductID=30&day=0&timeoffset=1
and for Ma specifically
http://www.fishweather.com/windandwhere.iws?regionID=176&regionProductID=30&timeoffset=1

Remember - discretion is the better part of valor this time of year, those nice lazy 3 day summer highs are now 24 hr tight windows between fronts. That 3-5 "groundswell" is a storm out in the Atlantic that might in the next 12 hr's roll 300 miles closer to you and turn into b reaking 4-6's.

I don't know about you, but even a 40' boat seems small to me in those conditions in Sept.

[FireFly]

You would not have wanted to be out at Halibut and definitely not near Thatchers on Saturday.

The seas went from relatively calm until mid day when there were good 3-5's and the wind was honkin. Back toward the Mac it was just as bad (maybe 2-4's) toward the end of the day.

Sometime you never know what it will be like until you get out there.